World Bank

Dubai - Global trade to hit $27 trillion in 2030: World Bank.

Global trade in goods and services could rise more than threefold to $27 trillion in 2030 with developing countries playing a central role, the World Bank predicted.

In its latest report on global economic prospects, the World Bank said growth in developing countries will reach a near record seven per cent this year. In 2007 and 2008, growth will probably slow, but still likely exceed six per cent, more than twice the rate in high-income countries, which is expected to be 2.6 per cent.

The report's 'central scenario' predicts that the global economy could expand from $35 trillion in 2005 to $72 trillion in 2030. "While this outcome represents only a slight acceleration of global growth compared to the past 25 years, it is driven more than ever before by strong performance in developing countries," said Richard Newfarmer, the report's lead author and Economic Advisor in the Trade Department.

"Sustained and broad-based growth in developing countries would significantly affect global poverty. The number of people living on less than $1 a day could be cut in half, from 1.1 billion now to 550 million in 2030. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind.

Moreover, income inequality could widen within many countries, compounding current concerns over inequality between countries," said Francois Bourguignon, World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, Development Economics.

He said globalisation is likely to bring benefits to many. "By 2030, 1.2 billion people in developing countries—15 per cent of the world population—will belong to the "global middle class," up from 400 million today. This group will have a purchasing power of between $4,000 and $17,000 per capita, and will enjoy access to international travel, purchase automobiles and other advanced consumer durables, attain international levels of education, and play a major role in shaping policies and institutions in their own countries and the world economy.