Ten Things for India to Achieve its 2050 Potential

India could be 40 times bigger by 2050.  To achieve this, India needs to implement many changes.

India needs to improve its governance, control inflation, introduce credible fiscal policy, liberalize financial markets and increase trade with its neighbors.

It also needs both to significantly raise its basic educational standards, and increase the quality and quantity of its universities.

India needs to boost agricultural productivity, improve its infrastructure and environmental quality.

Delivery of all these would ensure strong, persistent, medium to long term growth, allowing India to reach its amazing potential.

We highlight ten key areas where reform is needed. In all likelihood, they are not the only ten, but we consider them to be the most crucial:

1. Improve governance. Without better governance, delivery systems and effective implementation, India will find it difficult to educate its citizens, build its infrastructure, increase agricultural productivity and ensure that the fruits of economic growth are well established.

2. Raise educational achievement. Among more micro factors, raising India’s educational achievement is a major requirement to help achieve the nation’s potential. According to our basic indicators, a vast number of India’s young people receive no (or only the most basic) education. A major effort to boost basic education is needed. A number of initiatives, such as a continued expansion of Pratham and the introduction of Teach First, for example, should be pursued.

3. Increase quality and quantity of universities. At the other end of the spectrum, India should also have a more defined plan to raise the number and the quality of top universities.

4. Control inflation. Although India has not suffered particularly from dramatic inflation, it is currently experiencing a rise in inflation similar to that seen in a number of emerging economies. We think a formal adoption of Inflation Targeting would be a very sensible move to help India persuade its huge population of the (permanent) benefits of price stability.

5. Introduce a credible fiscal policy. We also believe that India should introduce a more credible medium-term plan for fiscal policy. Targeting low and stable inflation is not easy if fiscal policy is poorly maintained. We think it would be helpful to develop some ‘rules’ for spending over cycles.

6. Liberalize financial markets. To improve further the macro variables within the GES framework, we believe further liberalization of Indian financial markets is necessary.

7. Increase trade with neighbors. In terms of international trade, India continues to be much less ‘open’ than many of its other large emerging nation colleagues, especially China. Given the significant number of nations with large populations on its borders, we would recommend that India target a major increase in trade with China, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

8. Increase agricultural productivity. Agriculture, especially in these times of rising prices, should be a great opportunity for India. Better specific and defined plans for increasing productivity in agriculture are essential, and could allow India to benefit from the BRIC-related global thirst for better quality food.

9. Improve infrastructure. Focus on infrastructure in India is legendary, and tales of woe abound. Improvements are taking place, as any foreign business visitor will be aware, but the need for more is paramount. Without such improvement, development will be limited.

10. Improve Environmental Quality. The final area where greater reforms are needed is the environment. Achieving greater energy efficiencies and boosting the cleanliness of energy and water usage would increase the likelihood of a sustainable stronger growth path for India.  Perhaps not all these ‘action areas’ can be addressed at the same time, but we believe that, in coming years, progress will have to be made in all of them if India is to achieve its very exciting growth potential.

Jim O’Neill and Tushar Poddar,

Goldman Sachs Economic Research - June 16, 2008

In recent years, we have published a number of papers pointing to remarkably positive potential growth for India up to 20501. Having the potential and actually achieving it are two separate things. In this paper, we outline ten crucial steps that we believe India must take in order to achieve its full potential. In our latest annual update to our Growth Environment Scores (GES), India scores below the other three BRIC nations, and is currently ranked 110 out of a set of 181 countries assigned GES scores. If India were able to undertake the necessary reforms, it could raise its growth potential by as much as 2.8% per annum, placing it in a very strong position to deliver the impressive growth we outlined in Global Economics Paper No. 152. 

Jim O’Neill and Tushar Poddar,

Goldman Sachs Economic Research - June 16, 2008